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Technical Analysis

US stock markets update - Nasdaq 100

by Antonis Benis, on Feb 8, 2021 6:08:53 PM

In my last report I wrote about an important top that could produce a tradeable correction. The correction was very shallow, both in price (6-7%) and time (3 days); markets have made new highs, approaching the upper range of resistance right now.

  • NYSE and High yield Bond Advance/Decline line have made new highs, strongly suggesting that market breadth and liquidity in the market are still strong
  • Seasonality has turned negative into March
  • Valuations (forward P/E) close to levels last seen in 2000
  • Market sentiment at extremes typically seen at major market tops

HKCM ABO 2020
S&P 500

S&P 500 (SPX) registered a daily Combo 13 last Friday, sequential sell setup at 5 today (see chart 1). SPX Demark d.

Gann resistance at 3905/3918 and the 3x7 d angle (see chart 2)

S&P Fut.

Nasdaq 100 has the most reliable Gann pattern among the other indices. Resistance at 13760 and the 7x6 c angle (see chart 3,4 - weekly and daily respectively)

Nasdaq 100 Index weekly

Nasdaq 100 Index daily

Short term cycles suggest a top around now, followed by a correction into late February/first half of March before higher into April (see chart 5)

TS - SPX d.

Decennial pattern for Dow Jones, using prices since the 1930’s, suggests a top in May (see chart 6)

Decennial pattern -  Dow Jones

Courtesy of Seasonax


trading-boerse HKCM


Conclusion

 

Markets are approaching the upper levels of resistance right now; an interim top should be found as early as today/early next week at the latest. Expected is a correction that should retest the February 1st lows before higher. The levels mentioned above, for both the S&P and especially so for Nasdaq 100, should work exactly! Any decisive break above them negates this analysis.


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Topic:Trading SignalsActive TradingS&P 500Dow JonesNASDAQAnalysis and StrategyNYSETechnical Analysis
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