US stock markets - Intermediate decline may have already started
by Antonis Benis, on May 7, 2019 4:28:59 PM
US stock indices
In last week’s post I noted that a top of intermediate degree was expected for this week (May 6th). However, it is quite possible that US indices have already topped on May 1st and trying to retest the highs this week. I had to re-adjust my charts a little; while there is still some time left (3-4 trading days) to reach the level I talked about last week (S&P fut. Resistance @ 3009/3014), it looks like I have a few good reasons to believe that the top is already in.( see charts 1-3 below).
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RUSSELL 2000 could still reach higher (Gann resistance @ 1625/1629) . see the 4th chart.
Cycles for the S&P 500 suggest a top around now, followed by a decline into the first week of June and a secondary bottom in late August (higher low?).See the 5th chart. From there, at the latest, expect the bull market to resume until, at least, late December/early January 2020, before another correction takes place. Longer term the bull market should exhaust itself probably in 2021 (April/May?), I will give longer term, major resistance levels in future posts.
Nothing new to add since last week’s post. The high did hold and an intermediate degree correction started on April 22nd. Crude is currently short term oversold; expect a rebound, before lower into late May/early June (buying opportunity). See the 6th chart
Bottomline: Prices in US indices may have encountered significant resistance; although unlikely, they could still push a little bit higher, however upside is very limited (2-3%), a lasting breakout is not expected any time soon. Technical evidence of an imminent correction, not mayor crash, is quite strong to ignore. In any case, keep in mind that we are in a long term bull market.
Investors are advised to take some money off the table/ hedge their positions; there will be better/lower prices ahead. Traders are advised to look for and take sell signals. Crude Oil has reached a significant resistance a couple of weeks ago, sell the rallies.