US Stock Market
by Antonis Benis, on Aug 23, 2019 3:45:38 PM
The consolidation period in the stock markets continues, it is still too early to start a lasting rally. For now, the pattern that formed in the last couple of weeks or so is similar to those of March and November 2018, only on a shorter time frame.
Cycles suggest an important bottom for the last week of August/first week of September, ideally on August 29th , (see chart 1, red projection line with added dates); followed by a rally into mid-October before another correction takes place. Added some longer term cycles (green projection line on the chart), shows also an important bottom is nearby. Shaded, vertical green and red areas underneath, show periods when ALL cycles involved, point up or down respectively.
Please note that cycles are only about time, not about the magnitude of the moves.
POWER YOUR TRADE WITH SIGNALS & REPORTS
Test The Only Trading Platform Offering Direct Access To Morningstar® Reports
Created a chart of DAX, converted into US dollars. This is how international investors are viewing German stocks relative to the US ones. The technical pictures are very different, DAX is trading where it was in October 2013, topped in January 2018. It had three good corrections since 2009, the first was 40%, the second one 30% and now the third one is also 30%. Right now DAX is trading close to the 2x1 calendar Gann angle (a trendline from the 2009 low) which is very critical (see chart 2).
DAX and the other major stock markets are following in the footsteps of the US market but underperforming it. Also small caps are underperforming large caps, e.g. RUSSEL 2000 is underperforming DOW 30. Expect this underperformance to continue into late 2020, at least.