Strong Setup Markets - Changes in Trend Imminent
by Antonis Benis, on Jun 4, 2019 4:27:34 PM
All markets that we have been following in the last few weeks are registering TD daily sequential 9 buy/sell setups today.
30 Y BOND
The 30 Y Bond has the strongest setup, moves opposite to stocks; TD sequential 9 sell setup coupled with rare exhaustion alerts, bearish C.O.T. report (small speculators long position at record highs), cycle and intermarket analysis suggesting a top around now. Gann analysis: resistance at 155,11 (reached, see the 1st chart). Expect a decline into July, test of the April lows; there should be a retest of the highs in the next few days.
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Assuming that crude oil remains within the context of the 10-year cycle, it would be logical to expect a major low around now, followed by a rally into, at least, early 2020. TD sequential 9 buy setup complete today, supportive cycle analysis coupled with hard oversold condition and extreme negative sentiment. Support at $54 failed to catch the decline, new Gann support levels: 51,96/52,22 (reached), 50,96/51 and 49,95; I have not a valid Gann angle at the current level which makes me uncertain about the immediate outcome, some basing action is needed anyway. Crude oil inventories release tomorrow (see the 2nd chart).
At the time of writing this report, stocks are rallying. However, I do not believe we have seen the bottom yet. Expect one more leg to the downside into early next week. Possible Gann support levels: Dow 30 fut.: 24463/24470 ; S&P fut.: 2713 (see the 3rd chart).
Cycles are suggesting a bottom next week, followed by a rally into mid-July and renewed weakness into the first week of September. About there, at the latest, the bull market should resume into, at least, January 2020 (see the 4th chart).
Have you evaluated the risk level within your trading strategy?
US dollar (Dollar index) has topped within an ascending wedge since August 2018; sell the rallies. Expect a choppy multi-week correction, support at 96, resistance at 98,30.