S&P 500 Trading Update
by Antonis Benis, on Nov 26, 2019 6:48:39 PM
This is a follow up of my previous report on November 13th.
The Advance/Decline line made a new high yesterday, i.e. the bull market is still intact for now (see chart 1), however there are some signs of an imminent market peak in the next few weeks.
Dump money confidence (sentiment) is at levels last seen at interim/important market tops (see chart 2), TD weekly sequential sell setup at 6, VIX extremely compressed approaching a cyclical low, cycles suggesting a peak in December.
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Seasonality is positive until the first week of December, followed my weakness into the middle of the month and renewed strength until the turn of the year (see chart 3).
Cycles for the S&P 500 suggest a top for the first week of December and another one around Christmas, followed by a decline into late January/early February (see chart 4 with added dates).
Cycles for the VIX (volatility for the S&P 500) suggest a bottom on December 9th (see chart 5, moves opposite to the S&P).
Gann analysis: resistance at 3205/3218 and 3240 (see chart 6)
On November 20th I published a report on APPLE, gave $287/289 as strong resistance; IF, whenever this level is reached, expect a top for the general stock markets nearby (see updated chart 7).