GOLD Update - Critical Top in Place
by Antonis Benis, on Apr 8, 2020 4:31:14 PM
Last time I visited Gold was on March 5th.
Since then, Gold has had a strong decline (15%) into March 20th followed by an equally strong rally into April 7th. The level that has been reached ($1742,6, June fut.) is very important and critical for the future price of the metal.
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The -28x16 m Gann angle mirrors (x4) the -28x4 m Gann angle reached in April 2018, percentages from the 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2020 lows are major Gann numbers (66,66, 50, 37,5 and 20% respectively). The most important thing is that both, Gann angle and percentages, align exactly for a top on April 7th (see charts 1,2; weekly and daily respectively).
Cycles suggest a low in late May (see chart 3)
Seasonality is negative into late May also (see chart 4)
Courtesy of Seasonax
Accumulation/distribution line is not confirming the recent new highs. Market sentiment (optimism) is at extremes.
C.O.T report remains bearish, though not as much as it was a couple of weeks ago. Gold hedgers (smart money) have started to cover their record short positions at relatively high prices (see chart 5).
Courtesy of sentimentrader.com
Bottom-line: Gold has reached a very critical level on April 7th and should move lower for the next several weeks. If you go short this market, put your stop loss just above the recent high.
If/whenever this high ($1742) gets violated, next resistance is the 2011 all-time high or higher.