Gold Daily Market Update - The bulls are holding on!
by Ivano Celia, on Mar 31, 2020 4:46:04 PM
Although the bears managed to bring the price of Gold back to the 38.2% retracement level at $1615 an ounce, the bulls have so far been able to prevent further selling below this level. A high in wave (b) in yellow can only be expected when the metal drops below $1615 or in the following step at $1589 an ounce mark. Gold should now continue in wave (2) in yellow to a new interim low in the $1370 range. In order for this expectation to hold, no new high above $1704 should be built up. As long as the $1615 level does not fall, it must be assumed that the bulls can continue to provide upward movement.
Update from my trade:
XAUUSD short @ $1603.80 with +0.13% in plus. Currency hedge USDCHF short @ 0.97144 +0.44%. I want to hold the call option until gold falls below $1589, in order to still be hedged against an upward trend. Option expires on April 6th and is currently down -92.61% as gold has finally come down. At the moment this is a hedge that does not pay off. But with the current politics and volatility, security is Trump...uh sorry...trump.
Of course I hope to come out of this trade in a positive way. Short target gold is at $1320, but would be a bomb trade even if realized at $1400. US500 (S&P 500) short @ 2559.53 with a minus -2.76%. It is a matter of time before the stock market correction continues. At least this is what I personally expect. One should not forget that the epidemic in the USA has only just begun. A total lock-down of the USA, including the closure of the stock markets, is absolutely possible. Perhaps I am also too pessimistic in this matter. We shall see.
We are counting the third week of the Swiss Economic and Social Shutdown. Keep your chin up. Stay physically healthy and mentally fit! To be continued.
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